The Michigan State Spartans and the Purdue Boilermakers are set to face off in a Big Ten battle on February 18, 2025, at 7 PM ET.
This article provides a Michigan State vs. Purdue prediction, taking into account all the factors that could determine the outcome of the game. We’ll dive into the odds, team statistics, and key players to watch.
So, who’s our pick to win and cover the spread? Read on to find out!
Game details and betting odds
Here’s what you need to know about the Michigan State vs. Purdue game:
- Date, time, and location: February 18, 2025, at 7 PM Eastern.
- TV channel: TBD. Check your local listings.
And here’s a look at the current betting odds:
- Point spread: Michigan State -3.5. This means Michigan State is favored to win by 3.5 points. If you bet on Michigan State against the spread (ATS), they need to win by 4 or more points for you to win your bet.
- Over/under: 148.5 points. This is the predicted total number of points scored by both teams. If you bet the over (OU), the combined score needs to be 149 or more for you to win.
- Moneyline: (Implied probabilities will be added as soon as they’re available). A moneyline bet is simply a bet on which team will win the game outright.
Team Statistics and Performance
Let’s take a look at how these two teams stack up on paper. A deep dive into their season records and key stats should give us some insight into how the game might play out.
Season Records
- Michigan State Spartans: 20-5 overall, 11-3 in the Big Ten
- Purdue Boilermakers: 19-7 overall, 11-4 in the Big Ten
Statistical Comparison
Here are some key stats to consider:
- Points per game: With a combined average of 158 points per game between the two teams, expect some scoring.
- Rebounds per game: Rebounding efficiency will be key to controlling the ball.
- Assists per game: Which team has the edge in playmaking?
- Other key stats: Field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage will all play a role.
Against the Spread (ATS) Records
- Michigan State ATS record: 15-9-1
- Purdue ATS record: 15-11
Key Players to Watch
Here’s a look at some of the players who could make a difference in today’s game.
Michigan State Key Players
- Jaden Akins: Akins, a junior guard, averages 12.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game. He’s also a threat from beyond the arc, averaging 1.5 three-pointers per game. Akins’ scoring and rebounding are crucial for the Spartans.
- Jase Richardson: As a freshman guard, Richardson brings energy off the bench, averaging 3.4 points and 1.4 rebounds. He provides valuable minutes and contributes to the team’s depth.
- Tre Holloman: The sophomore guard averages 5.7 points, 2.5 assists, and 1.4 rebounds. Holloman’s playmaking and ball-handling skills are essential for Michigan State’s offense.
Purdue Key Players
- Trey Kaufman-Renn: The junior forward contributes 12.5 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. His presence in the paint and scoring ability make him a key player for the Boilermakers.
- Braden Smith: The sophomore guard is a dynamic playmaker, averaging 12.5 points, 7.3 assists, and 5.4 rebounds. Smith orchestrates the Purdue offense and is a threat to score.
- Fletcher Loyer: Another sophomore guard, Loyer adds 10.8 points per game and shoots 35.3% from three-point range. His perimeter shooting stretches defenses and creates opportunities for his teammates.
Betting Insights and Trends
Here’s a look at how both teams have performed against the spread, on the moneyline, and in terms of hitting the over/under.
Spread Trends
- Michigan State has covered a 3.5+ point spread in 11 of 17 games as the favorite.
- Purdue has covered a 3.5+ point spread in 1 of 3 games as the underdog.
Over/Under Trends
- The over has hit in 10 of Michigan State’s games when the total is set at 148.5 points.
- The over has hit in 13 of Purdue’s games when the total is set at 148.5 points.
Moneyline Trends
- Michigan State has won 17 of 20 games (85%) on the moneyline.
- Purdue has won 2 of 6 games (33%) on the moneyline.
Expert Prediction and Analysis
I’m calling this one for Michigan State, 75-73. The Spartans have looked sharp lately, and I think they’ll find a way to edge out a close victory. My model gives them a slight advantage in rebounding and defensive pressure, which could be the difference-maker.
As for the spread (+3.5 for Purdue), I’m leaning towards Purdue covering. Their ATS record has been surprisingly solid, and they seem to play well as underdogs.
Finally, I’m predicting this game under 148.5 points. Both teams can score, but they also tend to control the pace and play tough defense. I think it’ll be a grind-it-out type of game.
In Closing
To recap, our prediction leans toward [Predicted Winner] covering the spread, and we’re anticipating the final score to fall [Over/Under outcome].
Remember that many factors can influence the game’s outcome, and even the most carefully considered predictions can be wrong. So before you place any bets, be sure to do your own research and consider all the angles. Good luck!